{
  "venture": "Black Box Capital",
  "version": "v2 (post red team), November 2026",
  "label": "PROJECTIONS ONLY - not historical results. No customers, LPs, lenders, administrators or partners exist yet. Pre-tax, USD. Generated by model_build.py v2.",
  "model_type": "monthly, 84 months (7 years), rolled up annually; valuation date month 84",
  "assumptions": {
    "new_fix_clients_per_month_by_year": [
      2,
      4,
      5,
      6,
      6,
      6,
      6
    ],
    "fix_fee": 1500,
    "audit_to_paid_conversion": 0.2,
    "avg_client_annual_royalties": 25000,
    "eligible_leak_pct": 0.12,
    "leak_realization_rate": 0.55,
    "retro_years_of_leak": 0.83,
    "retro_success_fee_pct": 0.25,
    "retro_tranches": [
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        6,
        0.4
      ],
      [
        9,
        0.3
      ],
      [
        18,
        0.3
      ]
    ],
    "pub_share_via_admin": 0.6,
    "admin_commission": 0.15,
    "admin_referral_share": 0.125,
    "rev_share_term_months": 36,
    "valuation_reports_per_month_by_year": [
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      2,
      3,
      3,
      3,
      3,
      3
    ],
    "valuation_report_fee": 2000,
    "valuation_report_hours": 6,
    "diy_reports_per_month_by_year": [
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      60,
      120,
      160,
      200,
      200,
      200
    ],
    "diy_affiliate_revenue_per_report": 5,
    "hours_per_assisted_audit_manual": 3.0,
    "hours_per_assisted_audit_engine": 1.5,
    "engine_live_month": 8,
    "fulfillment_hours_per_client": 4,
    "contract_ops_rate_per_hour": 45,
    "ops_retainer_per_month": 1500,
    "data_cost_per_client": 50,
    "payment_processing_pct": 0.03,
    "concierge_test_cost_per_month": 5000,
    "engine_build_capex": 45000,
    "engine_build_months": [
      5,
      6,
      7
    ],
    "software_per_month_by_year": [
      800,
      2000,
      2500,
      3000,
      3000,
      3000,
      3000
    ],
    "marketing_per_month_by_year": [
      1500,
      2500,
      3000,
      3500,
      3500,
      3500,
      3500
    ],
    "opco_legal_acct_ins_per_month_by_year": [
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      2000,
      2500,
      2500,
      2500,
      2500,
      2500
    ],
    "marketing_cac_per_client": 450,
    "founder_deals": [
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        75000
      ],
      [
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        75000
      ],
      [
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        80000
      ]
    ],
    "entry_multiple_gross": 6.0,
    "diligence_pct": 0.05,
    "onboarding_per_deal": 1500,
    "uplift_pct": null,
    "leak_to_uplift": 1.25,
    "uplift_start_age": 3,
    "uplift_ramp_months": 18,
    "annual_decay_pct": 0.05,
    "catalog_admin_pct": 0.1,
    "audit_sourced_share": 0.25,
    "earnout_pct_of_uplift_value": 0.3,
    "earnout_age": 18,
    "fund_on": false,
    "fund_first_close_month": 30,
    "lp_commitment": 6000000,
    "gp_commit_pct": 0.02,
    "deploy_months": 36,
    "fund_debt_ltv": 0.25,
    "fund_debt_threshold_cost": 3000000,
    "debt_rate": 0.105,
    "fund_deal_cost_pct": 0.056,
    "fund_formation_cost": 50000,
    "fund_admin_per_year": 35000,
    "mgmt_fee_pct": 0.015,
    "pref": 0.08,
    "carry": 0.2,
    "gp_legal_per_month": 3000,
    "gp_legal_from_month": 24,
    "fundraise_cost": 25000,
    "fundraise_cost_month": 28,
    "analyst_start_month": 36,
    "analyst_loaded": 110000,
    "annual_raise": 0.04,
    "exit_multiple_net": 7.5,
    "seasoning_months": 24,
    "exit_cost_pct": 0.07,
    "opco_multiple_on_fee_revenue": 0.0,
    "carry_on": true,
    "client_mult": 1.0,
    "kill_month": null
  },
  "scenarios": {
    "core_base": {},
    "expansion_base": {
      "fund_on": true
    },
    "bear": {
      "eligible_leak_pct": 0.08,
      "uplift_pct": 0.05,
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      "client_mult": 0.5,
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      "kill_month": 18
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    "upside": {
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      "eligible_leak_pct": 0.18,
      "uplift_pct": 0.25,
      "annual_decay_pct": 0.03,
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      "exit_multiple_net": 10.0,
      "lp_commitment": 9000000
    },
    "exp_no_marks": {
      "fund_on": true,
      "carry_on": false
    },
    "exp_rerating_10x": {
      "fund_on": true,
      "exit_multiple_net": 10.0
    },
    "exp_half_lp": {
      "fund_on": true,
      "lp_commitment": 3000000
    },
    "exp_leak_8": {
      "fund_on": true,
      "eligible_leak_pct": 0.08
    },
    "exp_decay_8": {
      "fund_on": true,
      "annual_decay_pct": 0.08
    },
    "exp_opco_0_5x": {
      "fund_on": true,
      "opco_multiple_on_fee_revenue": 0.5
    },
    "core_rerating_10x": {
      "exit_multiple_net": 10.0
    },
    "core_leak_8_decay_8": {
      "eligible_leak_pct": 0.08,
      "annual_decay_pct": 0.08
    },
    "exp_combined_downside": {
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      "uplift_pct": 0.08,
      "lp_commitment": 3000000,
      "annual_decay_pct": 0.06
    },
    "gate_pass_core": {
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      "annual_decay_pct": 0.04
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    "gate_pass_expansion": {
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      "uplift_pct": 0.22,
      "annual_decay_pct": 0.04
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    "gate_pass_expansion_15m_anchor": {
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        ],
        [
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        ],
        [
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      ]
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  },
  "results": {
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      "founder_irr_pct": -9.7,
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      "founder_cash_in_total": 473976,
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        "gp_commit_value": 94554,
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        "founder_terminal_total": 317220,
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        "lp_moic": 1.05,
        "uplift_pct": 0.15
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      "exit_multiple_net": 10.0,
      "lp_commitment": 0,
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      "founder_moic": 1.33,
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    },
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      "exit_multiple_net": 10.0,
      "lp_commitment": 6000000,
      "founder_irr_pct": 20.2,
      "founder_moic": 2.63,
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  ],
  "recover_unit_economics": {
    "client_incremental_income_per_year": 1650,
    "fix_fee": 1500,
    "retro_success_fee": 342,
    "admin_revshare_36m": 56,
    "lifetime_gross_fee": 1898,
    "fulfillment_cost": 275,
    "contribution": 1623,
    "fully_loaded_cac": 788,
    "ltv_to_cac": 2.06,
    "client_net_benefit_36m_after_admin_and_our_fees": 2606,
    "payback": "immediate (fix fee collected at engagement)"
  },
  "single_deal_unlevered_irr_pct": {
    "base_7_5x_net_exit": 12.9,
    "rerate_10x_net_exit": 19.2,
    "market_6x_net_exit": 8.5,
    "no_uplift_6pct_decay_6x": 3.4,
    "uplift_8pct_decay_8pct": 7.5,
    "upside_25pct_uplift_3pct_decay": 18.0,
    "v1_terms_7_5x_gross_entry_for_reference": 5.1
  },
  "v1_for_reference": {
    "founder_irr_pct": 42.7,
    "founder_moic": 3.8,
    "peak_cash": 562000,
    "note": "v1 marked new SPVs at 10x gross at month 60, valued the opco at 1.5x revenue, and had no exit costs; superseded"
  }
}