The deal math, with nothing hidden.
A monthly model over 84 months, rebuilt after a three-person red team. Every number below is a projection from stated assumptions. The operating company is valued at zero, exits are on net royalties at 7.5x with 7% costs, and no re-rating is assumed in the base case.
Underwrite one catalog.
This calculator runs the same monthly cash flows as the plan's model. With the default inputs it reproduces the plan's base single-deal IRR of .
Single catalog deal, unlevered
Fixed inputs from model.json: diligence 5% of price, onboarding $1,500, administration 10% of gross, exit costs 7%, earnout 30% of uplift value at month 18 on the audit-sourced share. Monthly IRR by bisection, as in model_build.py.
Where the founder's return comes from, and where it breaks.
Founder IRR / MOIC across eligible leak, exit multiple and fund size. 27 cells from model.json. The outlined cell is the base case. Uplift is tied to leak at 1.25x; decay 5%.
A break-even-plus funnel.
The audit business is valuable as cheap data, deal flow and modest fees. It is not the profit center, and the plan says so.
If assisted audits take 3 hours each, as during the concierge phase, CAC rises to about $1,125 and LTV/CAC to about 1.4x.
Price discipline is the edge.
From model.json. Paying 7.5x for the as-is stream (v1 terms) hands the edge to the seller.
Every input, in one place.
Search the base assumptions from model.json. Download the raw file.
What changed after review.
v1 headline
42.7% IRR
3.8x MOIC, $562k peak cash. Depended on marking new deals at 10x, valuing the opco at 1.5x revenue, and no exit costs.
v2 Core headline
14.5% IRR
1.81x MOIC, $309k peak cash, zero W-2s. Every number traceable to cash rather than marks.
The gated option
20.8% IRR
2.47x, if the month-24 gates pass and an anchor commits about $15M. Upside case 41%, which needs everything to go right.